FED
Actas de la FED
Más optimistas. Más cautos sobre la reducción del QE, pero también más inquietos sobre sus potenciales consecuencias en la estabilidad de los mercados. Y reconociendo que su impacto económico positivo se reduce con el tiempo. Más prudentes sobre la inflación, perom ahora sobre la aceleración de la subida de los precios. *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `MODERATE' RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY *FOMC PARTICIPANTS `MOST CONCERNED' ABOUT QE RISKS TO STABILITY *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW DIMINISHING RESTRAINT FROM FISCAL POLICY *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `ONGOING IMPROVEMENT IN LABOR MARKET' *FED OFFICIALS SAW WANING BENEFITS FROM MONTHLY BOND PURCHASES *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW NEED TO MONITOR INFLATION `CAREFULLY' *MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS WERE MORE CONFIDENT IN JOB MARKET GAINS *MANY FOMC MEMBERS FAVORED QE TAPERING IN `MEASURED STEPS' ¿Neutral? La realidad es que las Actas dejan sentimientos encontrados. Bueno, lo realmente importante es la lectura del mercado. Y ha sido neutral. http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20131218.pdf Committee participants generally viewed the increases in nonfarm payroll employment of more than 200,000 per month in October and November and the decline in the unemployment rate to 7 percent as encouraging signs of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. Several cited other indicators of progress in the labor market, such as the decline in new claims for unemployment insurance, the uptrend in quits, or the rise in the number of small businesses reporting job openings that were hard to fill. Participants exchanged views on the extent to which the decrease in labor force participation over recent years represented cyclical weakness in the labor market that was not adequately captured by the unemployment rate. Some participants cited research that found that demographic and other structural factors, particularly rising retirements by older workers, accounted for much of the recent decline in participation. However, several others continued to see important elements of cyclical weakness in the low labor force participation rate and cited other indicators of considerable slack in the labor market, including the still-high levels of long-duration unemployment and of workers employed part time for economic reasons and the still-depressed ratio of employment to population for workers ages 25 to 54. In addition, although a couple of participants had heard reports of labor shortages, particularly for workers with specialized skills, most measures of wages had not accelerated. A few participants noted the risk that the persistent weakness in labor force participation and low rates of productivity growth might indicate lasting structural economic damage from the financial crisis and ensuing recession. Inflation continued to run noticeably below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent, but participants anticipated that it would move back toward 2 percent over time as the economic recovery strengthened and longer-run inflation expectations remained steady. Several participants suggested that some of the factors that had held down inflation recently, such as the slowing in price increases for medical care and banking services, were likely to prove transitory. Some participants suggested that inflation, while low, was unlikely to slow further, pointing to core, trimmed mean, or sticky-price inflation measures as indicative of fairly steady underlying price trends; most measures of wage gains were also steady. Nonetheless, many participants expressed concern about the deceleration in consumer prices over the past year, and a couple pointed out that a number of other advanced economies were also experiencing very low inflation. Among the costs of very low or declining inflation that were cited were its effects in raising real interest rates and debt burdens. A few participants raised the possibility that recent declines in inflation might suggest that the economic recovery was not as strong as some thought. A number of participants noted that current market expectations were reasonably well aligned with the Committee's recent policy communications. In their discussion of potential risks, several participants commented on the rise in forward price-to-earnings ratios for some smallcap stocks, the increased level of equity repurchases, or the rise in margin credit. One pointed to the increase in issuance of leveraged loans this year and the apparent decline in the average quality of such loans. A couple of participants offered views on the role of financial stability in monetary policy decision making more broadly. One proposed that the Committee analyze more explicitly the potential consequences of specific risks to the financial system for its dual-mandate objectives and take account of the possible effects of monetary policy on such risks in its assessment of appropriate policy. Another suggested that the importance of financial stability considerations in the Committee's deliberations would likely increase over time as progress is made toward the Committee's objectives, and that such considerations should be incorporated into forward guidance for the federal funds rate and asset purchases. José Luis Martínez Campuzano Estratega de Citi en España