Actas de la FED

Más optimistas. Más cautos sobre la reducción del QE, pero también más inquietos sobre sus potenciales consecuencias en la estabilidad de los mercados. Y reconociendo que su impacto económico positivo se reduce con el tiempo. Más prudentes sobre la inflación, perom ahora sobre la aceleración de la subida de los precios.

*FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `MODERATE' RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY
*FOMC PARTICIPANTS `MOST CONCERNED' ABOUT QE RISKS TO STABILITY
*FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW DIMINISHING RESTRAINT FROM FISCAL POLICY
*FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `ONGOING IMPROVEMENT IN LABOR MARKET'
*FED OFFICIALS SAW WANING BENEFITS FROM MONTHLY BOND PURCHASES
*FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW NEED TO MONITOR INFLATION `CAREFULLY'
*MOST FOMC PARTICIPANTS WERE MORE CONFIDENT IN JOB MARKET GAINS
*MANY FOMC MEMBERS FAVORED QE TAPERING IN `MEASURED STEPS'

¿Neutral? La realidad es que las Actas dejan sentimientos encontrados. Bueno, lo realmente importante es la lectura del mercado. Y ha sido neutral.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20131218.pdf

Committee participants generally viewed the increases
in nonfarm payroll employment of more than 200,000
per month in October and November and the decline
in the unemployment rate to 7 percent as encouraging
signs of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions.
Several cited other indicators of progress in the
labor market, such as the decline in new claims for unemployment
insurance, the uptrend in quits, or the rise
in the number of small businesses reporting job openings
that were hard to fill. Participants exchanged
views on the extent to which the decrease in labor
force participation over recent years represented cyclical
weakness in the labor market that was not adequately
captured by the unemployment rate. Some participants
cited research that found that demographic and
other structural factors, particularly rising retirements
by older workers, accounted for much of the recent
decline in participation. However, several others continued
to see important elements of cyclical weakness
in the low labor force participation rate and cited other
indicators of considerable slack in the labor market,
including the still-high levels of long-duration unemployment
and of workers employed part time for economic
reasons and the still-depressed ratio of employment
to population for workers ages 25 to 54. In addition,
although a couple of participants had heard reports
of labor shortages, particularly for workers with
specialized skills, most measures of wages had not accelerated.
A few participants noted the risk that the
persistent weakness in labor force participation and low
rates of productivity growth might indicate lasting
structural economic damage from the financial crisis
and ensuing recession.

Inflation continued to run noticeably below the Committee's
longer-run objective of 2 percent, but participants
anticipated that it would move back toward
2 percent over time as the economic recovery strengthened
and longer-run inflation expectations remained
steady. Several participants suggested that some of the
factors that had held down inflation recently, such as
the slowing in price increases for medical care and
banking services, were likely to prove transitory. Some
participants suggested that inflation, while low, was
unlikely to slow further, pointing to core, trimmed
mean, or sticky-price inflation measures as indicative of
fairly steady underlying price trends; most measures of
wage gains were also steady. Nonetheless, many participants
expressed concern about the deceleration in
consumer prices over the past year, and a couple pointed
out that a number of other advanced economies
were also experiencing very low inflation. Among the
costs of very low or declining inflation that were cited
were its effects in raising real interest rates and debt
burdens. A few participants raised the possibility that
recent declines in inflation might suggest that the economic
recovery was not as strong as some thought.

A number of participants noted that current market expectations
were reasonably well aligned with the Committee's
recent policy communications.

In their discussion of
potential risks, several participants commented on the
rise in forward price-to-earnings ratios for some smallcap
stocks, the increased level of equity repurchases, or
the rise in margin credit. One pointed to the increase
in issuance of leveraged loans this year and the apparent
decline in the average quality of such loans. A couple
of participants offered views on the role of financial
stability in monetary policy decision making more
broadly. One proposed that the Committee analyze
more explicitly the potential consequences of specific
risks to the financial system for its dual-mandate objectives
and take account of the possible effects of monetary
policy on such risks in its assessment of appropriate
policy. Another suggested that the importance of
financial stability considerations in the Committee's
deliberations would likely increase over time as
progress is made toward the Committee's objectives,
and that such considerations should be incorporated
into forward guidance for the federal funds rate and
asset purchases.



José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España