Subida del 5.5 % de la volatilidad VIX ayer.
Pero en niveles bajos de 13.95 %.
El EUR sigue en niveles de soporte, en 1.1291 USD.
Y eso tras el movimiento de ida y vuelta ayer intentando perforar claramente 1.14 USD.
No pudo.
Se mantiene el rango de 1.11/1.145 USD.
For recent commentary or to access archived publications, visit the CitiFX Technicals website
Chart of the Week – EURUSD: The final countdown
– Last week’s “Chart of the Week” title was: Does EURUSD have a date with destiny
– In that piece we suggested that this week (and possible Thursday 21st April) could be a key day in determining whether this rally in EURUSD was going to develop “new legs” or not.
– Are we going to test and break the pivotal 1.1495 level? (Just like we did the 1.1496 level on Thursday Sept 10th, 1998). Or, is this the point where the similarities in price break down leading to a re-emergence of the structural downtrend in EURUSD?
– As this day approaches, the “jury is still out”
– Below we look at the price and background dynamics and re-articulate why this level, this week and possibly Thursday itself look to be pivotal points in price, time and backdrop.
Commodities – Reflationary Spirits: Energy, Metals and Softs
– Keynes believed animal spirits were a necessary component to motivate people to take action in a positive way. Essentially it being the emotion that influences consumer/business behavior (wealth effect, consumer confidence, entrepreneurism, urge to act). We can extend that theory to the marketplace with trend following and inflationary/deflationary underlying economic developments that shift market participant holdings/perception.
– We feel as though the deflationary mindset has been embedded in the marketplace for some time now and that there is a reluctance to accept the reflationary narrative (as we went over in depth earlier in March). Meanwhile Commodities continue to push higher with bears further feeding the move higher. Commodities can overshoot to the downside (as we saw in this cycle) and there is no reason to think that they cannot overshoot to the topside- particularly as market participants seek inflation hedges (commodities themselves) which further contributes to the positive reflationary spirits and feedback loops (self-fulfilling prophecy).
Local Markets – Commodity rally can fuel further gains in Local Markets
– The CCI Index continues to suggest that the ADXY (and its components) are likely to see further gains going forward. A number of Asian crosses are included below
– Other Commodity related currencies – especially those in LATAM – should also benefit from the move in Commodities
Equities – Equity market rally still has legs
– The US Equity market rally looks likely to continue in our view. A weekly close above 17,978 on the Dow Jones Industrial Index – which we may see this week – confirms a double bottom which would then target above 20,000.
– Such a development would further support the likelihood that new trend highs are likely to be seen more broadly across US Indices.
En el caso del S&P pocas novedades, en niveles ahora de 2085 puntos.
Dentro del rango de 1847/2120 puntos.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
