FED cree que los riesgos a corto para la economía están equilibrados y que el mercado laboral se fortalece. Opinan que la economía repunta.
FED baja la previsión de crecimiento de 2016 de 2 a 1,8% pero le echa la culpa al primer semestre
FED comenta que la inflación sigue por debajo del objetivo, y sólo ve llegada al objetivo del 2% en el medio plazo
Dicen que el consumidor está muy fuerte, pero gasto empresarial débil
Dicen que si "ajustan" léase suben de forma gradual, la economía se fortalecerá a ritmo moderado y el mercado de trabajo seguirá bien
Ojo a esto importante. 3 miembros de la FED votan en contra y quieren subir tipos. George, Mester y Rosengren. 7 a favor.
Lo que más llama la atención es lo dividida que está la FED. No es frecuente una votación de siete a favor pero 3 en contra lo que se ha hecho hoy.
Estos tres miembros querían la subida de tipos ya.
Esto hace pensar que está cantada una próxima subida. Lo que pasa es que la próxima reunión es una semana antes de las elecciones en EEUU, y parece que por pura lógica, y por amor a sus sillones, no es muy probable que se atrevan a hacer nada, con lo cual el mercado va a descontar casi totalmente una subida más este año en diciembre.
Todo eso, si es que la FED que da muestras de estar despistada no sale por los cerros de Úbeda. Según ellos la economía va muy bien, salvo el gasto empresarial que sigue débil. No hay menciones importantes a los muchos datos macro flojos que han salido. Dicen que la inflación no va a subir a corto plazo.
El mensaje por una vez por tanto está claro. De momento nada y en diciembre una subida. En suma lo que tenía archidescontado el mercado.
Por lo tanto no hay sorpresa alguna y cuando se disipe la volatilidad propia del comunicado, lo que pase será porque las manos fuertes tenían previsto hacerlo de todas formas, porque esta reunión de la FED no cambia absolutamente nada, y todo sigue igual. En todo caso si el mercado se fiara más de la FED sería ligeramente positivo pues la FED se muestra más optimista sobre la economía de lo que muestran los propios datos. Pero el mercado hace ya tiempo que se fía poco de las apreciaciones de su banco central. Y menos tras ver a esos tres disidentes en la decisión de hoy.
Texto íntegro en inglés:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid, on average. Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened but decided, for the time being, to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds ?
