Ya saben que tras escuchar a la Fed ayer (FOMC+Yellen) las bolsas USA subieron ligeramente, el USD se debilitó y la rentabilidad de la deuda 10 años USA bajó hasta niveles de 2.27 %.

Esta fue la reacción del mercado. Y el mercado, claro, siempre tiene razón.

Con todo, nosotros ahora esperamos que la primera subida de tipos sea en septiembre. Y esto deja el camino preparado para al menos (podría haber más) otra subida de tipos más, quizás en diciembre.

Pero, como dijo ayer la propia Yellen, las decisiones se tomarán reunión a reunión.

Les dejó tres ideas adicionales desde la Presidenta de la Fed:

· I want to emphasize and I think the IMF would agree with this that the importance of the timing of a first decision to raise rates is something that should not be overblown whether it is September or December or March.

· … since last summer [we] have seen an appreciable increase in the value of the dollar vis-a-vis most of our training partners including emerging markets. So it is a significant appreciation of the dollar and I think we have seen that it had a negative effect on net exports and so served as a something of a drag on the economy and probably that drag is going to continue for some time to come so it is a factor of effecting the outlook. In addition import prices for a nonoil imports continue to fall and I think that is serving to push down a core inflation, a little bit eventually I expect that impact to ebb but it is a factor effecting the outlook that said we obviously have no target for the dollar. We take movements in the dollar in its economy economic impact is one of many factor the affecting the outlook and in spite of the depreciation of the dollar the committee obviously thinks that the economy is likely to do well enough to call likely, likely call for some tightening later this year……. We, of course, do not have a target for the USD, but we feel it is weakening activity and inflation, so draw your own conclusions … and certainly don’t blame us if it goes up anyways.

· we have received data that suggests that consumer spending is growing at a moderate pace…. car sales, for example, were very strong part of it probably represents pay back for weak sales during the winter months. … questions at this point about just how much impact we have seen of lower energy prices on consumer spending. … And I'm not convinced yet by the data that we have seen the kind of response to that that I would ultimately expect. And I think it is hard to know at this point whether or not that reflects a very cautious consumer ….. So I think the jury is out there. But think we have seen some pickup in household spending.

La Fed reconoce que la economía se recupera en el Q2, pero es pronto para valorarlo.

Muchos miembros ven factible dos subidas de tipos en el año, pero aún se debe calibrar con el escenario.

Se revisa a la baja el rango de crecimiento este año, aunque esto era lógico considerando los datos del Q1. Pero se mantienen las previsiones para 2016.

Dovish, bearish, dovish, bearish…y así podríamos seguir.


Y el Comunicado de la reunión….

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano

Estratega de Citi en España