FED
Actas de la FED leídas ayer
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131120a.htm
¿Recuerdan el comunicado de la Reunión?
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases
Pues de esta forma se cierran las Actas conocidas ayer....
At the end of the discussion, participants agreed that it would be helpful to continue reviewing these issues of longer-run policy strategy at upcoming meetings. No decisions on the substance were taken, and participants generally noted the usefulness of planning for various contingencies
Aquí les dejo alguna de los temas discutidos en la Reunión:
* In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants generally indicated that the broad contours of their medium-term economic projections had not changed materially since the Sep-tember meeting.
* Participants broadly continued to project the pace of economic activity to pick up
* Several significant risks remained, including the uncertain ef-fects of ongoing fiscal drag and of the continuing fiscal debate.
* Consumer sentiment remained unusually low, posing a downside risk to the forecast, and uncertainty surrounding prospective fiscal deliberations could weigh further on consumer confi-dence.
* It was noted that slower growth in productivity might have become the norm
* But a number of them ex-pressed concern about the possible economic effects of repeated fiscal impasses on business and consumer confidence
* It was noted that the stance of fiscal policy was likely to remain one of the most important headwinds restraining growth over the medium term.
* The drop in the unemployment rate over the past year, while welcome and significant, could overstate the degree of improvement in labor market conditions, in part because of the decline in the labor force participation rate
* Suggesting that the unemployment rate continued to provide a reasonably accurate signal about the strength of the labor market and the degree of slack in the economy.
* A few participants ex-pressed concerns about the eventual economic impact of the change in financial conditions since the spring; in particular, increases in mortgage rates and home prices had reduced the affordability of housing, and the high-er rates were at least partly responsible for some slow-ing in that sector.
* One participant stated that the ex-tended period of near-zero interest rates continued to create challenges for the banking industry, as net inter-est margins remained under pressure.
* A number of participants noted that recent movements in interest rates and other indicators suggested that financial markets viewed the Committee's tools-asset purchases and forward guid-ance regarding the federal funds rate-as closely linked.
* A couple of participants observed that the decision at the September FOMC meeting might have strengthened the credibility of monetary policy, as suggested by the downward shift in the expected path of short-term in-terest rates that had brought the path more closely into alignment with the Committee's forward guidance.
* A couple of participants thought it premature to focus on this latter eventuality, observing that the purchase pro-gram had been effective and that more time was need-ed to assess the outlook for the labor market and infla-tion; moreover, international comparisons suggested that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet retained ample capacity relative to the scale of the U.S. economy.
* During this general discussion of policy strategy and tactics, participants reviewed issues specific to the Committee's asset purchase program.
* it might well be appropriate to offset the effects of reduced purchases by undertaking alternative actions to provide accom-modation at the same time.
* As part of the planning discussion, participants also examined several possibilities for clarifying or strength-ening the forward guidance for the federal funds rate, including by providing additional information about the likely path of the rate either after one of the economic thresholds in the current guidance was reached or after the funds rate target was eventually raised from its cur-rent, exceptionally low level.
* Participants also discussed a range of possible actions that could be considered if the Committee wished to signal its intention to keep short-term rates low or rein-force the forward guidance on the federal funds rate.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
¿Recuerdan el comunicado de la Reunión?
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases
Pues de esta forma se cierran las Actas conocidas ayer....
At the end of the discussion, participants agreed that it would be helpful to continue reviewing these issues of longer-run policy strategy at upcoming meetings. No decisions on the substance were taken, and participants generally noted the usefulness of planning for various contingencies
Aquí les dejo alguna de los temas discutidos en la Reunión:
* In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants generally indicated that the broad contours of their medium-term economic projections had not changed materially since the Sep-tember meeting.
* Participants broadly continued to project the pace of economic activity to pick up
* Several significant risks remained, including the uncertain ef-fects of ongoing fiscal drag and of the continuing fiscal debate.
* Consumer sentiment remained unusually low, posing a downside risk to the forecast, and uncertainty surrounding prospective fiscal deliberations could weigh further on consumer confi-dence.
* It was noted that slower growth in productivity might have become the norm
* But a number of them ex-pressed concern about the possible economic effects of repeated fiscal impasses on business and consumer confidence
* It was noted that the stance of fiscal policy was likely to remain one of the most important headwinds restraining growth over the medium term.
* The drop in the unemployment rate over the past year, while welcome and significant, could overstate the degree of improvement in labor market conditions, in part because of the decline in the labor force participation rate
* Suggesting that the unemployment rate continued to provide a reasonably accurate signal about the strength of the labor market and the degree of slack in the economy.
* A few participants ex-pressed concerns about the eventual economic impact of the change in financial conditions since the spring; in particular, increases in mortgage rates and home prices had reduced the affordability of housing, and the high-er rates were at least partly responsible for some slow-ing in that sector.
* One participant stated that the ex-tended period of near-zero interest rates continued to create challenges for the banking industry, as net inter-est margins remained under pressure.
* A number of participants noted that recent movements in interest rates and other indicators suggested that financial markets viewed the Committee's tools-asset purchases and forward guid-ance regarding the federal funds rate-as closely linked.
* A couple of participants observed that the decision at the September FOMC meeting might have strengthened the credibility of monetary policy, as suggested by the downward shift in the expected path of short-term in-terest rates that had brought the path more closely into alignment with the Committee's forward guidance.
* A couple of participants thought it premature to focus on this latter eventuality, observing that the purchase pro-gram had been effective and that more time was need-ed to assess the outlook for the labor market and infla-tion; moreover, international comparisons suggested that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet retained ample capacity relative to the scale of the U.S. economy.
* During this general discussion of policy strategy and tactics, participants reviewed issues specific to the Committee's asset purchase program.
* it might well be appropriate to offset the effects of reduced purchases by undertaking alternative actions to provide accom-modation at the same time.
* As part of the planning discussion, participants also examined several possibilities for clarifying or strength-ening the forward guidance for the federal funds rate, including by providing additional information about the likely path of the rate either after one of the economic thresholds in the current guidance was reached or after the funds rate target was eventually raised from its cur-rent, exceptionally low level.
* Participants also discussed a range of possible actions that could be considered if the Committee wished to signal its intention to keep short-term rates low or rein-force the forward guidance on the federal funds rate.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España
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