http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140820a.htm

Naturalmente, es sólo un "quizás". ¿Probable? Esto sería demasiado decir.

Tres importantes mensajes desde las Actas publicadas ayer....

1.      Participants generally agreed that both the recent improvement in labor market conditions and the cumulative progress over the past year had been greater than anticipated and that labor market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer

2.      In their discussion of financial stability issues, participants noted evidence of valuation pressures in some particular asset markets, but those pressures did not appear to be widespread and other measures of vulnerability in the financial system were at low to moderate levels.

3.      With respect to monetary policy over the medium run, participants generally agreed that labor market conditions and inflation had moved closer to the Committee's longer-run objectives in recent months, and most anticipated that progress toward those goals would continue.

En definitiva, admiten la mejora económica (más rápida de lo esperado); consideran que las variables objetivo, como inflación o desempleo, se han ajustado a objetivos considerados de largo plazo; pero todo ello no supone una mayor presión para acelerar la normalización monetaria. ¿La estabilidad financier? Depende, pero a muy corto plazo tampoco parece suponer que el comportamiento de los mercados obligue a actuar también rápidamente con los tipos de interés.
Esperar y ver. Pero, es cierto, con un creciente debate interno sobre cómo actuar en el futuro. Es una conclusion similar a la que obtuvimos también ayer al revisar las Actas del ultimo MPC.

Participants generally agreed that both the recent improvement
in labor market conditions and the cumulative
progress over the past year had been greater than
anticipated and that labor market conditions had moved
noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer
run. Participants differed, however, in their assessments
of the remaining degree of labor market slack and how
to measure it. A few argued that the unemployment rate
continues to serve as a reliable summary statistic for the
overall state of the labor market and thought that it
should be the Committee's principal focus for evaluating
labor market conditions. However, many participants
continued to see a larger gap between current labor market
conditions and those consistent with their assessments
of normal levels of labor utilization than indicated
by the difference between the unemployment rate and
estimates of its longer-run normal level. These participants
cited, for example, the still-elevated levels of longterm
unemployment and workers employed part time
for economic reasons as well as low labor force participation.
Several participants pointed out that the recent
drop in the unemployment rate had been associated with
progress in reabsorbing the long-term unemployed into
jobs and reducing part-time work, suggesting that slack
was diminishing and could be reduced further as employment
opportunities expanded.

In their discussion of financial stability issues, participants
noted evidence of valuation pressures in some particular
asset markets, but those pressures did not appear
to be widespread and other measures of vulnerability in
the financial system were at low to moderate levels. As
a result, they generally saw the vulnerabilities in the financial
system as well contained. Some participants discussed
how the Committee might better incorporate financial
stability risks in its discussion of macroeconomic
risks. They also suggested that the Committee consider
how promptly various financial stability concerns could
be addressed, if need be, and which tools, including
monetary policy and regulatory responses, would be
most timely and effective in doing so.

With respect to monetary policy over the medium run,
participants generally agreed that labor market conditions
and inflation had moved closer to the Committee's
longer-run objectives in recent months, and most anticipated
that progress toward those goals would continue.
Moreover, many participants noted that if convergence
toward the Committee's objectives occurred more
quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to
begin removing monetary policy accommodation
sooner than they currently anticipated. Indeed, some
participants viewed the actual and expected progress toward
the Committee's goals as sufficient to call for a relatively
prompt move toward reducing policy accommodation
to avoid overshooting the Committee's unemployment
and inflation objectives over the medium
term. These participants were increasingly uncomfortable
with the Committee's forward guidance. In their
view, the guidance suggested a later initial increase in the
target federal funds rate as well as lower future levels of
the funds rate than they judged likely to be appropriate.
They suggested that the guidance should more clearly
communicate how policy-setting would respond to the
evolution of economic data. However, most participants
indicated that any change in their expectations for
the appropriate timing of the first increase in the federal
funds rate would depend on further information on the
trajectories of economic activity, the labor market, and
inflation. In particular, although participants generally
saw the drop in real GDP in the first quarter as transitory,
some noted that it increased uncertainty about the
outlook, and they were looking to additional data on
production, spending, and labor market developments
to shed light on the underlying pace of economic
growth. Moreover, despite recent inflation developments,
several participants continued to believe that inflation
was likely to move back to the Committee's objective
very slowly, thereby warranting a continuation of
highly accommodative policy as long as projected inflation
remained below 2 percent and longer-term inflation
expectations were well anchored.




José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España