For recent commentary or to access archived publications, visit the CitiFX Technicals website

–    Oil (WTI) has met the double bottom target of $43.45. We are still trading in a rising channel and saw a bullish outside week being posted on Friday.

–    While a brief consolidation is possible, the trend still appears to be up and further gains are likely to be seen. Medium term resistance levels are at $48.36-$50.92 which includes the channel top.

–    Elsewhere in commodities, while the CCI Index has corrected down over the past couple of sessions, we did post a weekly close above the 55 week moving average for the first time since mid-2014. This is the latest sign that further gains are possible. A rally though 407-410 would add to the bullish bias. It is also worth noting that both energy and base metals are still holding up well - the LME Index at the end of last week for example was at its highest level since October 2015. The short term weakness on the CCI Index is more from softs and, to some extent, Gold.





·       The chart above is a daily one while the inserted candles show the bullish outside “week”

·       Near term supports are at $41.90-$42.42. Below there we have the channel base and 200 day at $39.39-$40.42

·       More medium term resistance levels (and extended targets) come in at $48.36 - $50.92

cid:2f3e670a-cdbb-4f3c-bdc7-a129279d89c0

·       The weekly close above the 55 week moving average was the first since mid-2014 (left chart)

·       Resistance levels at 407-410 need to be overcome next to add weight to the bullish trend. Medium term resistance above there is at 439.

·       The previous breakout level was 394 which should provide support if tested (see daily chart on the right)

 

 

José Luis Martínez Campuzano

Estratega de Citi en España