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  1. Tories return to power "A Tory government will most likely intervene in energy supply markets through the introduction of a regulated cap on standard variable tariffs. On a worst case basis the negative impact could be very materially negative for merchant utilities, Centrica in particular. Secondly, a resounding Tory victory should be positive for sentiment more broadly. In an ensuing market rally, the regulated stocks (National GridUnited Utilities, and Pennon Group) could be left behind. Furthermore, Centrica and National Grid would be negatively impacted by any strengthening of the pound."
  2. Labour victory "A Labour victory would be a significant negative shock for merchant utilities Centrica and SSE, while the threat of nationalisation would be negative for UK regulated energy (National Grid) and water (United UtilitiesSevern Trent,Pennon Group) stocks. While in principle the Labour manifesto pledge to cap energy tariffs is similar to the Tory policy, in reality an emergency price cap... would almost invariably be more damaging to UK suppliers."
  3. Hung parliament "We feel that this scenario is probably one of the better outcomes for the sector. If either major party manages to form a coalition government, it will be from a weakened position. As a result, in our view we are less likely to see severe intervention in supply markets or extreme policies such as renationalisation of privatised assets."