La volatilidad VIX ayer con un fuerte descenso del 9.32 %.

Hasta niveles de 13.82 %.


El EUR rompe resistencias recientes hasta 1.1308 USD.

Si rompe niveles de 1.134 USD, pensemos en niveles de 1.148 USD.

Por debajo niveles de 1.119 USD.


El S&P al alza hasta 2048 puntos.

Entre 1847/2120 puntos.


–    The Fed is dovish, the USD is down, US yields are lower, money is cheap, equities are rallying (bullish outside day on all major US indices overnight), and commodities are stable. What more do we want for a market friendly or “risk on” environment?

–    Such a backdrop means local markets are going to perform well across regions.

–    We will expand on the above in tomorrow’s Weekly Roundup.

–    For now we concentrate on USD weakness in the majors. Should this continue for the next couple of sessions we will be in danger of posting a bearish outside week on the USD Index. Within that, EURUSD is approaching the next breakout area at 1.1328-75, USDJPY posted a bearish outside day, and a higher GBPUSD is probably where the “pain” is. The market is pre-occupied with the UK referendum while we should remember that a currency pair is made of two parts. The reverse head and shoulders pattern, if/when completed, would send the pair north of 1.50.

·       While stuck in a broad range, the USD index is in danger of posting a bearish outside week as a continuation of recent weakness if we close this week below 95.00.

·       Important support is at 92.62 followed by a range of levels at 88.46-89.62

·       Resistance levels are at 1.1328-1.1375. A break through there opens the way for 1.1468-95 and then 1.1712

·       Posted a bearish outside day yesterday from near the top of the range.

·       The last time we saw that was on 15th March from similar levels. We then went to a low of 110.67.

·       There has not been any break on GBPUSD as yet. However we appear to be forming a reverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 1.4474.

·       Horizontal resistance and the channel top come in just above at 1.4514-1.4559.

·       A breach of those levels would suggest a rally to the 1.52 area.



José Luis Martínez Campuzano

Estratega de Citi en España