¿Cuáles son los principales riesgos para la Estabilidad financiera? por orden de importancia, de acuerdo con el ECB, mercados emergentes (y commodities), rentabilidad y morosidad de la banca, deuda pública y privada en un contexto de creciente incertidumbre política y debilidad del crecimiento y en menor medida los fondos de inversión (stress, riesgo de liquidez de mercado y conexión con las entidades financieras).
 
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Along with these challenging global conditions, euro area banks continue to be confronted with an outlook of low profitability amid the weak economic recovery and, in certain jurisdictions, high stocks of non-performing assets. Banks’ return on equity has remained subdued in recent quarters and continues to hover below their cost of equity. The low interest rate environment, a tepid economic recovery and the more challenging external and market environment have all had a dampening impact on banks’ profitability prospects. In addition, a large stock of non-performing loans in a number of countries is constraining banks’ lending capacity and profitability. Offsetting this, the collective weight of ECB monetary policy measures should support funding conditions for banks further, while also strengthening their profitability via higher loan demand. That said, these measures alone are not sufficient to ensure a profitable and healthy banking sector over the medium term. Some banks may need to further adapt their business models to ensure long-term sustainability – via consolidation, cost-cutting or other efficiency measures….
 
¿Y el riesgo del propio mercado?
 
Risks to financial stability stem not only from the banking sector, but also from the broader financial system including a rapidly growing investment fund sector. In recent quarters investment fund growth in the euro area has slowed owing to elevated price volatility and a partial reversal of fund flows, mainly due to emerging market stress. Still, the expansion of this sector over the last years has been remarkable, with a doubling in size since 2008. While the sector’s increasing role in credit intermediation and capital markets provides useful diversification benefits for the real economy, fragilities might also be associated with the exceptional growth given that risk-taking and interconnectedness with the rest of the financial system have been steadily increasing over time….
 
Pero, el riesgo político…por países
 
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Y el creciente papel de los fondos de inversión como financiación económica, doméstica e internacional…
 


José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España