Son datos de la EBA.

* Tres años de análisis para un deterioro del escenario
* Riesgos comunes: riesgo de crédito, riesgo de mercado, riesgo soberano, securitización y coste de financiación
* Capital mínimo del 8 % en Tier 1 para el escenario base y del 5.5 % para el más adverso

The adverse scenario reflects the systemic risks that are currently assessed as representing the most pertinent threats to the stability of the EU banking sector: (i) an increase in global bond yields amplified by an abrupt reversal in risk assessment, especially towards emerging market economies; (ii) a further deterioration of credit quality in countries with feeble demand; (iii) stalling policy reforms jeopardising confidence in the sustainability of public finances; and (iv) the lack of necessary bank balance sheet repair to maintain affordable market funding.

The negative impact of the shocks, which include also stress in the commercial real estate sector, as well as a foreign exchange shock in Central and Eastern Europe, is substantially global. In the EU, the scenario leads overall to a cumulative deviation of EU GDP from its baseline level by -2.2% in 2014, by -5.6% in 2015, and -7.0% in 2016. The EU unemployment is higher than its baseline level, by 0.6 percentage points in 2014, by 1.9 percentage points in 2015 and by 2.9 percentage points in 2016.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España