Ayer, dentro de la Reunión de Primavera del IIF.


¿El título? Vulnerabilidades macro, reformas regulatorias y cuestiones sobre la estabilidad financiera.
Muy completo.

En definitiva, literalmente.....

*       All in all, the current situation of the world economy is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty.

*       In the current circumstances, synergies among economic policies should be better exploited with a view to maximizing the stimulus to aggregate demand and to accelerate the recovery.

*       The management of the flow of refugees, the referendum that the United Kingdom will hold next month on its EU membership, and, more recently, the negotiations with the United States to sign the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) are leading sometimes to heated debates on the institutional framework of the EU.

*       The provision of ample liquidity by Central Banks has contributed to restore financial market functioning in situations of severe stress and so, to support the economy.

*       In due course, a need to restore more normal monetary conditions will arise, although its precise timing is impossible to predict and will depend on the cyclical situation of each economy or monetary area.

*       This normalization process may create a scenario of monetary policy divergences, in which there maybe unexpected exchange rate movements and communication is very relevant

*       There is a special focus also on avoiding significant increases for overall capital requirements. This means that, given that we have already reinforced the level and quality of capital for the overall banking industry, the impact on requirements of the current revision should be borne by those parts of the banking system where the major unwarranted low asset densities are located.

*       But a really crucial challenge is good calibration. Furthermore, there are difficult questions to be addressed regarding impact assessments: What is the meaning of "significant" when referring to the increase of the capital requirements? What is the best approach to capture outlier banks which are making savings through the use of aggressive modelling techniques? Is the impact going to be measured by categories of banks with similar profiles and business models?

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España​