Miren este gráfico…..
 
c1

 
Cerca de cerrar, la bolsa de Shanghai amplia las caídas ahora con recorte del 4.2 %.
 
¿Por qué? Estas son algunas de las ideas que me ofrecen mis traders…
 
- China turnover is lower this week ( or 30D avg). Other than retail not involved, locals attribute thin volume to fact that many private funds participants are preparing for licensing exam this Sat after regulators recently urged private funds to be registered and supervised.

- Although new stock investors account opening jumped 34% WoW, % of investors held positions dropped further to sub 49% => low conviction and participation from retail.

- Margin financing balance has been in tight range but margin net buy has been in -VE for 12 consecutive sessions.
- Margin re-lending utilization by brokers has not picked up albeit CSFC relaxed requirements.

- State news commentary signaled less monetary stimulus imminently {NSN O5TM5Y3V2800 }.

- Today's 210bn net injection via OMO and recent 480bn MLF gave market less hopes of further monetary stimulus.
- Credit concerns in onshore corp bond market has been heightening. {NSN O5VBD06K50YC }

- Skepticism remains in CNY stability as CNY CFETS basket is at the lowest print of 97.3 since inception.
 
En definitiva, poco volumen y mucha incertidumbre. Incertidumbre sobre más medidas expansivas, sobre la solidez de la estabilidad alcanzada por los mercados e incertidumbre, en general, sobre la situación económica y financiera.
Sí, probablemente la escasa liquidez lleva a sobredimensionar los movimientos del mercado. Pero, también nos recuerda su fragiliadad de fondo…
 
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España