Para algunos, las opciones ofrecidas a UK suponen una vuelta atrás en la integración. Para otros, en caso de que resultara el sí, sería sin duda un nuevo foco de especulación sobre la estabilidad del área.

Como ven, todos perdemos. ¿Y los mercados? su evolución final va a depender, al menos a corto plazo, de las decisiones que adopte el ECB.

 

Por cierto, les voy a anticipar el artículo 50 del Tratado de Maastricht…

 

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

No, no les voy a amargar con el artículo 49. Por el momento.

 

Las bolsas asiáticas con ligeras caídas en estos momentos. Caída algo mayor de la bolsa china, del 1.05 %.

La bolsa USA en futuros con recorte de 0.3 % hasta 1930 puntos el S&P.

 

El diferencial bono-bund 10 años en 154 p.b.

La rentabilidad del bono en 1.72 %.

 

La rentabilidad del treasury 10 años en 1.75 %.

 

Dice hoy Kuroda que mantendrá el QE y los tipos de depósito en negativo hasta que la inflación suba al 2.0 %.

Pero, admite que la expansión de la base monetaria no empuja de forma automática los precios.

La clave en su opinión son las expectativas de inflación, que se han debilitado de forma reciente.

 

El EUR cae hasta niveles de 1.1033 USD.

El precio del crudo en 34.24 $ barril entre rumores de todo tipo (oferta: USA, OPEP, Rusia).

El precio del oro en 1216 $ onza.

 

 

José Luis Martínez Campuzano

Estratega de Citi en España