¿Hasta qué punto parte de la inestabilidad del mercado tiene su origen en el cambio de sesgo desde la Fed?
Porque, lo cierto, es que la Fed en enero se mostró muy contrariada por la fuerte restricción financiera derivada de la caída de los mercados.
Luego, no sólo las Actas reflejan que la próxima subida de tipos desde la Fed se aplaza en el tiempo como que todo será mucho más complicado a la hora de pronosticas ese futuro momento de volver a subir los tipos.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20160127.pdf

Les dejo estos comentarios recogidos de las Actas...

Participants also discussed a range of issues related to financial market developments. Almost all participants cited a number of recent events as indicative of tighter financial conditions in the United States; these events included declines in equity prices, a widening in credit spreads, a further rise in the exchange value of the dollar, and an increase in financial market volatility. Some participants also pointed to significantly tighter financing conditions for speculative-grade firms and small businesses, and to reports of tighter standards at banks for C&I and CRE loans. The effects of these financial developments, if they were to persist, may be roughly equivalent to those from further firming in monetary policy. Participants mentioned several apparent factors underlying the recent financial market turbulence, including economic and financial developments in China and other foreign countries, spillovers in financial markets from stresses at firms and in countries that are producers of energy and other commodities, and an increase in concerns among market participants regarding the prospects for domestic economic growth. However, a number of participants noted that the large magnitude of changes in domestic financial market conditions was difficult to reconcile with incoming information on U.S. economic developments. A couple of participants pointed out that the recent decline in equity prices could be viewed as bringing equity valuations more in line with historical norms. Additionally, a few participants cautioned that valuations in CRE markets should be closely monitored. The effects of a relatively flat yield curve and low interest rates in reducing banks' net interest margins were also noted.

Sí, mirar a todos los lados.
Pero, sin duda, considerando que sus propias decisiones (de la Fed) puede condicionar este futuro desarrollo de los mercados. Y limitar nuevas actuaciones en el futuro.
¿Muy complicado? Lo es, sin duda.

José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España